A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
