Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
